Imagine the crack of the bat as your favorite player hits a long fly ball to center field. Have you ever wondered if the weather has an effect on how far a baseball can travel? More home runs are seemingly hit on hot days or on days with the wind blowing out.  Conversely, most would argue that fewer home runs are hit on cold days with the wind blowing in. 

Indeed, many aspects of the weather can have a big impact on how far a baseball will travel and the team at Home Run Forecast has quantified its potential impact in a user-friendly index that is available at any big league ballpark. Our approach uses a combination of statistical and theoretical models and stadium-specific weather data. The “Home Run Forecast Index” is calculated on an hourly basis out to 48 hours and is displayed in a simple format ranging from low-to-high (1-10) depending on the favorability of the weather in hitting home runs.


For ballpark locations with a retractable roof, the HRF Index is calculated for open roof conditions. When a roof is closed, conditions vary depending on the type and amount of air conditioning in use, however, they are most often "Average" conditions representing an HRF Index value of 4 to 6. 

The “Home Run Forecast Index” has proven results and can be a useful tool in choosing your Fantasy Baseball lineup or in making a bet on the number of home runs or total runs scored in a specific game or in simply deciding which day is better to purchase tickets based on forecasted weather conditions.

The Team

Paul Dorian


Meteorologist/systems engineer for 30+ years in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania. He is an avid baseball enthusiast and holds both Bachelor and Master of Science degrees in meteorology from Penn State University. Paul's baseball and weather commentary have been featured across the nation on TV, radio and the web through his original idea of the "home run index."

Ryan Mercovich

Data Scientist

15+ years experience in software, analysis, and data science. Ryan works in the private sector as a Software Architect and Data Scientist. He holds a Ph.D. from the Rochester Institute of Technology, specializing in remote sensing algorithm design. Passionate about many things, Ryan enjoys baseball, biking, cars, and technology of all kinds. Ryan and his family live in Phoenixville Pennsylvania.

John Leekley

Marketing Manager

John is a life-long baseball fan, having been to the first Nationals game at RFK after waiting his whole life for a team to come to DC. He has had a career in sports including as a coach, small business owner, and now as a part of several sports tech companies. He has an MBA from Babson College and has teamed up with Paul and Ryan to help bring Home Run Forecast to the market.