HOME RUN FORECAST INDEX VERSUS TOTAL RUNS AND HOME RUNS

The first half of the season is over, and we have kept data on the Index and correlated it with runs and home runs through the first half of the season. Now with the All-Star break here we are publishing our findings, all of which are verifiable. 

You can still view our 2022 results if you Click Here.

2023 FIRST-HALF RESULTS BY CATEGORY

Runs 8.7 9.2 10.8
HRs 1.9 2.3 2.9

If we designate categories for the HRF Index by using values of 1 and 2 for LOW; 3-8 for MEDIUM, and 9 and 10 for HIGH, we can see a clear upward trend in the average number of runs scored and home runs as we go from LOW-to-MEDIUM-to-HIGH. 

Games in the first half of the 2023 have averaged of 2.3 home runs. The HRF Index shows that total varies significantly. When the Index is LOW, less than 2 home runs are hit in 71% of those games. When the Index is HIGH, more than 2 home runs are hit 65% of the time. Games with a HIGH average HRF index of 9 or 10 have seen average total runs of 10.8, and 2.9 homers per game.

2023_first_half_Runs_By_Category
2023_first_half_HRs_By_Category

We also see an interesting jump in the numbers when we separate out the 9’s and 10’s from the rest of the results. When the index is HIGH, at a value of 9 to 10, the average number of runs is more than 1 run over the average runs per game when the Index is at 8 or less. 

2023 FIRST HALF RESULTS BY HRFI VALUE

The table below breaks down the number of games that had a specific Index average, as well as the number of runs and home runs averaged at that level.  At the high end, games with a 10 Index averaged over 11 runs a game. There have been 28 games so far that have hit a 10 the entire game, with more likely as we get deeper into the summer months. 

Alternatively, you can see that there have been 98 games with an average Index of 1. This is not surprising given the cooler temps we saw in the first few months of the season. Those 98 games averaged 8.68 runs and less than 2 home runs.

1 98 8.7 1.8
2 43 8.8 2
3 140 8.9 2.2
4 142 9 2.2
5 124 9.6 2.3
6 113 9 2.2
7 134 9.3 2.3
8 222 9.2 2.5
9 43 10.4 2.7
10 28 11.4 3.1

USING THE HRF INDEX

Looking at the total runs trend a little deeper, we have data on how often certain Index levels beat the Over or Under. Games that have held a 9 or 10 Index for the entire game have beaten the Over 64% of the time.  Games with a 1 or 2 Index have hit the Under 54% of the time. These Totals are based on what has been set for each game by Ceaser’s Sportsbook. As always, results will vary.

Check back here to see a summary of the entire season once the regular season has finished.

You can still view our 2022 results if you Click Here.

DISCLAIMER

The Home Run Forecast (HRF) Index values provided on the “homerunforecast.com” web site are based on engineering and meteorological judgement and are to be used for informational purposes only. The HRF Index is not a predictor of the number of total runs or home runs in any given game. The HRF Index is one of many factors to be considered in any evaluation of “Over/Under” set values. Past performance of the HRF Index versus the number total runs or home runs is no guarantee of future results. The accuracy of any weather forecast and other meteorological data provided on this web site cannot be guaranteed and are provided for informational purposes only. The authors of this web site do not condone sports betting in any manner which involves a serious amount of risk. The “homerunforecast.com” web site and its publishers are not liable for any sports betting decisions made by its viewers or subscribers. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please seek professional help.