Home Run Forecast Summary of data collected

The team at Home Run Forecast (HRF) has been collecting data all season on the correlation between the HRF Index and the total number of runs and home runs in each game.  The HRF Index ranges from 1 to 10, with 1 indicating the least favorable weather conditions for ball flight and 10 indicating most favorable. We are publishing results here through the games on September 8th, which is all verifiable. Simply put, a high HRF Index number that is averaged over a game, that is an 8, 9 or 10, corresponds to an average number of runs of over 8.6 for 8’s, 9.5 runs for a 9 Index value, and 10.4 runs per game when the Index hits a 10 for the entire game. There were 147 games during this period where the Index averaged a 10 for the entire game. In those contests, an average of 2.81 home runs were hit, and the average runs scored was over 10.

On the other end of the scale, a low HRF Index correlates to a low  number of runs and home runs.  Through September 8th, there were 66 games with an Index value of 1, meaning weather conditions were the worst possible for ball flight. These games saw an average of 7.6  runs scored, and a lower number of home runs at 1.43 per game.

Aggregate state through Sept 8

1 66 7.6 1.43
2 49 8.02 1.44
3 139 8.47 1.94
4 140 8.45 2.07
5 161 8.38 2.08
6 215 8.61 2.06
7 217 8.41 2.17
8 442 8.54 2.2
9 109 9.54 2.34
10 147 10.39 2.81

If we break out the HRF Index into three categories - LOW, MEDIUM and HIGH - we can see the average runs scored and home runs hit in relation to the Index value range. A LOW average Index value of 1, 2 or 3 results in average total runs of 8.16 and average home runs of under 2, whereas a MEDIUM average Index value (4, 5, 6, 7 averages total runs of 8.45 and just over 2 for average number of home runs. A HIGH average Index (8, 9, 10) pushes the average number of runs to just over 9 and home runs over 2.3.

HRF_Stats_Runs
HRF_Stats_HRs

We see an interesting jump in the numbers when we separate out the 9’s and 10’s from the rest of the results. Using 9 to 10 as our “HIGH” zone, we see that the average number of runs is over 1 more than the average runs per game when the Index is at 8 or less.

Low 8.16 1.72
Medium 8.47 2.1
High 9.09 2.35

We will continue to collect data as the season progresses through the last few weeks and cooler weather is likely throughout at least parts of the country which should correlate to overall lower HRF Index values.

One final note, we have tracked information on the HRF Index versus  Over/Under” values for each game and will post results on those  separately.

Using the HRF Index

Over the course of the season, we have tracked what the Index value is during games and the corresponding total runs set for those games by the various sportsbooks. 

A note about the totals–during the year we are using the total runs as set at opening pitch by the major sportsbooks, such as DraftKings and FanDuel. The totals change throughout the game but our data is based on the total before the game starts.

High index values and the "Over"

Our findings (summarized in the table below) show that if the total runs are set at 7.5 and the HRF Index averaged a 9 or 10 for the whole game, that the Over hit more than 70% of the time.

If the total was set at 8.5 the Over hit more than 60% of the time.  If the total was set at 9.5, the Over still hit more than 50% of the time.

If the Index averaged a 10 for an entire game, the highest point on the scale, the numbers are even more interesting. When the index is 10 and the total number of runs for the over/under is 7.5, the over hits nearly 75% of the time. Again, with an index of 10, the over hits more than 65% of the time at 8.5 runs, and more 55% of the time at 9.5 runs. 

As we posted earlier, games that have had an Index value of 10 averaged for the entire game, more than 140 games this season, have averaged over 10 runs per game the entire season. 

Low HRF Index and the "Under"

Our findings show that if the total runs was set at 7.5 and the HRF Index averaged a 1 or 2 for the whole game, that the Under hit more than 50% of the time. If the total was set at 8.5 the Under hit more than 60% of the time.  If the total was set at 9.5, the Under hit more than 70% of the time.

If the Index averaged a 1 for an entire game, the highest point on the scale, the outcomes were even more clear.

If the total number of runs was set at 7.5, and the Index value averaged as a 1 for the entire game, the Under hit nearly 55% of the time. The Under hit nearly 65% of the time at 8.5 runs, and more 75% of the time at 9.5 runs. 

As we posted earlier, games that have had an Index value of 1 averaged for the entire game, more than 60 games through 9/8, have averaged only 7.6 runs per game during the entire season. 

We will continue to publish our data as the season wraps in a few weeks. We will also post findings at specific ballparks, such as what the average total runs have been in Baltimore when the index averaged a 10 for the entire game. 

High (9 or 10) 7.5 70% -
High (9 or 10) 8.5 60% -
High (9 or 10) 9.5 50% -
10 7.5 75% -
10 8.5 65% -
10 9.5 55% -
Low (1 or 2) 7.5 - 50%
Low (1 or 2) 8.5 - 60%
Low (1 or 2) 9.5 - 70%
1 7.5 - 55%
1 8.5 - 65%
1 9.5 - 75%

Disclaimer

“The Home Run Forecast (HRF) Index values provided on the
“homerunforecast.com” web site are based on engineering and
meteorological judgment and are to be used for informational
purposes only. The HRF Index is not a predictor of the number of total
runs or home runs in any given game. Past performance of the HRF
Index versus the number total runs or home runs is no guarantee of
future results. The accuracy of any weather forecast and other
meteorological data provided on this web site cannot be guaranteed
and are provided for informational purposes only. The authors of this
web site do not condone sports betting in any manner which involves
a serious amount of risk. The “homerunforecast.com” web site and its
publishers are not liable for any sports betting decisions made by its
viewers or subscribers. For gambling problems, please call 1-800-
Gambler.”