HOME RUN FORECAST INDEX VERSUS TOTAL RUNS AND HOME RUNS
The team at Home Run Forecast (HRF) has been collecting data during the 2022 season and post-season on the correlation between the HRF Index and the average number of runs and home runs averaged for each game in open air conditions. The HRF Index ranges from 1 to 10, with 1 indicating the least favorable weather conditions for ball flight and 10 indicating most favorable. We are publishing results here for the entire 2022 season and playoffs, which is all verifiable. HIGH HRF Index values of 9 and 10 corresponded to an average number of total runs of 9.64 and 10.36 respectively. In addition, HIGH HRF Index values of 9 and 10 corresponded to an average number of home runs of 2.44 and 2.80 respectively. There were 115 games during the season and playoffs with an HRF index value of 9 and 157 games with an HRF index of 10.
On the other end of the HRF Index, LOW values correlated to a lower number of runs and home runs. There were 86 games with an HRF Index value of 1, meaning weather conditions were the worst possible for ball flight. These games saw an average of 7.05 runs scored and a lower number of home runs per game at 1.37. There were 67 games with an HRF Index value of 2 and these games saw an average of 8.05 runs scored and an average of 1.53 home runs per game.
2022 SEASON RESULTS
If we designate categories for the HRF Index by using values of 1 and 2 for LOW; 3-8 for MEDIUM, and 9 and 10 for HIGH, we can see a clear upward trend in the average number of runs scored and home runs as we go from LOW-to-MEDIUM-to-HIGH. A LOW HRF Index value of 1 or 2 resulted in an average number of total runs of 7.51 and average number of home runs 1.40, whereas a MEDIUM average Index value (3-8) featured an average number of total runs of 8.50 and 2.12 for the average number of home runs. A HIGH average Index of 9, 10 correlated with an average number of runs of 10.04 and an average number of home runs of 2.61.
We see an interesting jump in the numbers when we separate out the 9’s and 10’s from the rest of the results. Using 9 to 10 as our “HIGH” zone, we see that the average number of runs is over 1 more than the average runs per game when the Index is at 8 or less.
|LOW (1-2) 153 games||7.5||1.4|
|MEDIUM (3-8) 1595 games||8.5||2.1|
|HIGH (9-10) 272 games||10.1||2.7|
Using the HRF Index
Over the course of the 2022 season, not only did we track the HRF Index during each game, but we also gathered information on “Over/Under” data as set by the various sportsbooks. The “Over/Under” values that we used for informational purposes were set by the major sportsbooks, such as DraftKings and FanDuel. The “Over/Under” values can change throughout the game, but our focus outlined here were on the pre-game totals.
High index values and the "Over"
Our findings (summarized in the table below) show that if the total runs are set at 7.5 and the HRF Index averaged a 9 or 10 for the whole game, that the Over hit 70.95% of the time. If the total was set at 8.5 the Over hit 63.60% of the time. If the total was set at 9.5, the Over hit 52.94% of the time.
If the HRF Index averaged a 10 for an entire game, the highest point on the scale, the numbers are even more interesting. When the HRF Index averaged a 10 and the total number of runs for the over/under is 7.5, the over hit 71.97% of the time. Again, with an index of 10, the over hit 65.60% of the time at 8.5 runs, and more 55% of the time at 9.5 runs.
As posted earlier, games that had an HRF Index value of 10 averaged for the entire game, more than 150 games this season, averaged over 10 runs per game the entire season.
Low HRF Index and the "Under"
Our findings show that if the total runs was set at 7.5 and the HRF Index averaged a 1 or 2 for the whole game, that the Under hit more than 55% of the time. If the total was set at 8.5 the Under hit 64.05% of the time. If the total was set at 9.5, the Under hit 74.05% of the time.
If the Index averaged a 1 for an entire game, the lowest point on the scale with the most unfavorable weather conditions for the baseball to carry, the outcomes were even more clear.
If the total number of runs was set at 7.5, and the HRF Index value averaged as a 1 for the entire game, the Under hit 61.62% of the time. The Under hit 69.76% of the time at 8.5 runs, and more than 80% of the time at 9.5 runs.
As posted earlier, games that have had an HRF Index value of 1 averaged for the entire game, more than 80 games, have averaged only 7.05 runs per game during the entire season.
|High (9 or 10)||7.5||70.84||-|
|High (9 or 10)||8.5||63.46||-|
|High (9 or 10)||9.5||52.76||-|
|Low (1 or 2)||7.5||-||55.24|
|Low (1 or 2)||8.5||-||62.93|
|Low (1 or 2)||9.5||-||72.02|
HRF Index and Total Home Runs
Our findings (summarized in the table below) show that for Low HRF Index values of 1 and 2, the percentage of games with less than 2 HRs was 61.43. If the Index averaged a 1 for an entire game, the percentage of games with less than 2 HRs was 61.62.
For High HRF Index value games of 9 and 10, the percentage of games with greater than or equal to 2 HRs was 66.91. If the Index averaged a 10 for an entire game, the percentage of games with greater than or equal to 2 HRs was 71.97.
|High (9 or 10)||<2||33.08|
|High (9 or 10)||>=2||66.91|
|High (10 only)||<2||28.02|
|High (10 only)||>=2||71.97|
|Low (1 or 2)||<2||61.43|
|Low (1 or 2)||>=2||38.56|
|Low (1 only)||<2||61.62|
|Low (1 only)||>=2||38.37|
AVERAGE HOME RUN FORECAST INDEX BY STADIUM (LOW-TO-HIGH)
Home Run Forceast Index values are captured in the table below for each major stadium location throughout the season. An asterisk (*) denotes a retractable roof. Tampa has a permanent roof and is not included. Arizona, Texas, and Miami had insufficient data with roof open and are not included.
|New York (AL)||5.88||86|
|New York (NL)||6.51||81|
The Home Run Forecast (HRF) Index values provided on the “homerunforecast.com” web site are based on engineering and meteorological judgement and are to be used for informational purposes only. The HRF Index is not a predictor of the number of total runs or home runs in any given game. The HRF Index is one of many factors to be considered in any evaluation of “Over/Under” set values. Past performance of the HRF Index versus the number total runs or home runs is no guarantee of future results. The accuracy of any weather forecast and other meteorological data provided on this web site cannot be guaranteed and are provided for informational purposes only. The authors of this web site do not condone sports betting in any manner which involves a serious amount of risk. The “homerunforecast.com” web site and its publishers are not liable for any sports betting decisions made by its viewers or subscribers. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please seek professional help.