The ensemble run of the 00Z Euro features colder-than-normal air across much of the eastern third of the nation (shown in blue) during the first week of May and also across portions of Texas whereas above-normal weather conditions exists from the Northern Plains to the western states. Map courtesy ECMWF, tropicaltidbits.com
The intrusion of cool air masses into the US during the past few weeks is likely to continue right into the month of May and this pattern has resulted in numerous games with very low “Home Run Forecast Index (HRFI)” values on the order of 1 or 2 out of 10. The low HRFI values are suggestive of unfavorable weather conditions for baseballs to travel whereas values of 9 or 10 are indicative of most favorable weather conditions for the hitting of home runs…9’s and 10’s have been very limited so far during the first month of the season. On Thursday, April 24th, for example, the game played in Minneapolis featured chilly conditions with temperatures in the 40’s and the result was a 3-0 shutout in a rain-shortened affair. On Friday, April 25th, the weather will be on the cool side in places like Chicago and Denver and once again in Minneapolis and all three sites are likely to feature very low HRFI values of wither 1 or 2. Looking ahead, while there will certainly be some significant warm air intrusions next week and beyond across the nation, the likelihood for more chilly air outbreaks will continue it looks like right into the first week of May; especially, across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US…still a bit too early to say its “hittin’ season” everywhere.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian