HOW DOES HOME RUN FORECAST WORK?

It's really about the weather. Weather conditions impact baseball flight through the air. The same batted ball goes a different distance depending on weather. The difference between a 1 and a 10 HRF index value can be more than 20% for the distance traveled. On a good day a ball that normally goes 350 feet could fly 385, and the same ball on a bad day might go 315. Read on to see how this impacts total runs and home runs in real games played in different conditions.

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2025 SEASON RESULTS

HRFI versus Total Home Runs

Total home runs in a game and the HRFI are strongly correlated yet again in 2025 season. This is a consistent result throughout the past 5 years. Remember, for the same ball in different conditions, it can travel >20% further with an HRFI of 10 versus and HRFI of 1.

Comparing HRFI to Total Home Runs per game:

  • HRFI 1's < 2.5 HRs 77% of the time
  • HRFI 10's > 2.5 HRs 48% of the time
In games where the average HRFI was 1, the total home runs for the game was 1 or 2 almost 80% of the time. Conversely, in all games where the average HRFI was 10, the games had 3 or more home runs 48% of the time.

2025_Results_Avg_Hrs_vs_Avg_HRFI

Total Runs

For total runs, we also see a strong correlation.

HRFI 1's and 2's are:

  • < 7.5 Total Runs 51% of the time
  • < 8.5 Total Runs 59% of the time
  • < 9.5 Total Runs 72% of the time

Based on HRFI alone, for games in which the Average HRFI was 1 or 2, the Under on 7.5 total runs was successful 51% of the time, 59% successful on 8.5 total runs, 72% successful on 9.5 total runs

1's had a 54% success rate on Under for Actual O/U as set by ESPN BET

2025_Results_Avg_Runs_vs_Avg_HRFI
As the weather heats up with more humidity, we see more high HRFI's.  HRFI 9's and 10's correlate well to total runs as well, but this correlation is weaker than in previous seasons. We'll keep a close eye as the season progresses.

HRFI 9's and 10's are:

  • > 6.5 Total runs 75% of the time
  • > 7.5 Total runs 63% of the time
  • > 8.5 Total runs 56% of the time
  • > 9.5 Total runs 46% of the time

Games in which the Average HRFI was 9 or 10, the Over on 7.5 total runs was successful 63% of the time, 56% successful on 8.5 total runs, and 46% successful on 9.5 total runs.

DISCLAIMER

The Home Run Forecast (HRF) Index values provided on the “homerunforecast.com” web site are based on engineering and meteorological judgement and are to be used for informational purposes only. The HRF Index is not a predictor of the number of total runs or home runs in any given game. The HRF Index is one of many factors to be considered in any evaluation of “Over/Under” set values. Past performance of the HRF Index versus the number total runs or home runs is no guarantee of future results. The accuracy of any weather forecast and other meteorological data provided on this web site cannot be guaranteed and are provided for informational purposes only. The authors of this web site do not condone sports betting in any manner which involves a serious amount of risk. The “homerunforecast.com” web site and its publishers are not liable for any sports betting decisions made by its viewers or subscribers. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please seek professional help.