The extended version of the GFS model features colder than normal conditions across much of the nation between 22 March and 21 April. Map courtesy NOAA, Weather Bell Analytics
The 2024 baseball season gets underway in less than a week – next Thursday, March 28th – and it continues to look like the month of April may be rather chilly across much of the nation. A major snowstorm is underway early this weekend from upstate New York State to northern New England where more than a foot can fall by early Sunday. In addition, the Northern Plains – where there has been little snow this winter season – experienced accumulating snow during the past couple of days and will again by early this week including places such as North and South Dakota and Minnesota. This unusual early (spring) season snow is the result of continuing cold air outbreaks into the US from Canada and the overall upper air pattern suggests this can continue well into the month of April which would impact the early part of the 2024 baseball season.
The month of April has averaged colder than normal temperatures across much of the nation between 2018 to 2023 and it appears April 2024 may follow this recent trend. Map courtesy NOAA
In fact, a look at the temperature anomalies across the nation during the month of April in the six years prior of 2018-2023 shows colder-than-normal conditions across much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation and there is an increasing chance that this coming April continues that recent trend. In terms of the Home Run Forecast Index, colder-than-normal conditions at the beginning of the 2024 baseball season would raise the chances for low index values (e.g., 1 or 2) in many big league baseball stadiums locations which would suggest unfavorable weather conditions for hitting home runs.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian