The 5 day mean of 850 mb temperature anomalies for early May with widespread warmer-than-normal conditions.
Way back in the first half of March, we feared a continuation of cold air outbreaks across the nation into the month of April – a pattern that would impact the early part of the 2024 baseball season – and unfortunately, that fear was well justified. There have been numerous cold air outbreaks during the first 3 weeks of April and even some snowfall in some places such as the Rocky Mountain States. In fact, Denver has seen snow in just the past couple of days as the Rockies continue to experience winter-like chill on occasions and the Great Lakes/Northeast US/Mid-Atlantic will get another dose of chilly weather later this week. A strong cold front will slide through the northeastern states late Wednesday and many spots in this part of the nation may deal with the threat of frost in its wake.
The current 5 day mean of 850 mb temperature anomalies with widespread colder-than-normal conditions.
As a result of the early season widespread chill, the Home Run Forecast Index (HRFI) has spent a lot of time on the low side with more than 50 games averaging out as a 1 or 2. Conversely, the high end of the HRFI spectrum has featured only 3 games with an average HRFI of 9 and no games at all with a 10.
There is a change coming, however, as the overall weather pattern is about to change across much of the nation to one that features warmer-than-normal weather and with that change should come persistently higher Home Run Forecast Index values. The change to warmer-than-normal will correspond pretty closely with the calendar change from April to May as that first week of May will be vastly different than the next 5 days…and its about time.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian