Meteorologist Paul Dorian

The month of August will get off to a colder-than-normal start across much of the nation (shown in blue). Map courtesy ECMWF, Weather Bell Analytics Temperatures reached well up into the 90’s on Wednesday afternoon in much of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US, but major-league relief is on the horizon…in fact, jackets may be …

Wednesday, July 30th – *Major-league relief coming to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US…transition to include some heavy rainfall on Thursday afternoon and night…look for lower HRF Index values* Read More »

Overview The All-Star break arrives on Monday for big-league baseball which always features a Home Run Derby that’ll take place on Monday evening in Atlanta, Georgia and the All-Star game will be played on Tuesday night. The weather looks quite hot and humid both for the Home Run Derby and the All-Star game and – …

Sunday, July 13th – *Baseball’s “Home Run Derby” takes place on Monday night in Atlanta…weather can have quite an impact on the distance balls can travel…surprising recent finding on winds* Read More »

Very strong upper-level ridging will form in the eastern states early next week leading to a surge of heat in the DC-to-Boston corridor during the Sunday-Wednesday time period. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather Overview Father’s Day turned out to be very cool across the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US with some spots nearly 20 degrees …

Monday, June 16th – *A surge of high heat to produce a run to 100 degrees for the DC-to-Boston corridor early-to-mid next week…expect to see an explosion of “10’s” for the Home Run Forecast Index* Read More »

  A plume of tropical moisture on Monday extends from the southeastern Gulf/Caribbean Sea to the Mid-Atlantic region (low-level tropical moisture shown in blue/white colors). Map courtesy NOAA, College of DuPage Tropical moisture us flowing northward along the eastern seaboard and it is supported by a slow-moving and vigorous upper-level low pressure system. The result …

Monday, 12 May 2025 – *A plume of tropical moisture is flowing northward along the eastern seaboard…Mid-Atlantic cities likely to deal with delays or rainouts in coming days…more cold air outbreaks coming in May with low “Home Run Forecast Index” games* Read More »

The ensemble run of the 00Z Euro features colder-than-normal air across much of the eastern third of the nation (shown in blue) during the first week of May and also across portions of Texas whereas above-normal weather conditions exists from the Northern Plains to the western states. Map courtesy ECMWF, tropicaltidbits.com The intrusion of cool …

Friday, April 25th – *Still signs for chilly air masses as we head to the month of May…a likely continuation of very low Home Run Forecast Index values in some stadiums* Read More »

A stratospheric warming event that began in late February and continued through March continues to do its magic in the month of April with cold air outbreaks across the eastern and central US…and it looks like we are not done quite yet with this overall pattern. This atmospheric phenomenon has lead to numerous cold weather …

Friday, April 11th – *Not quite done with the cold air outbreaks for the Great Lakes, Midwest, Northeast US…more cold weather games and low Home Run Forecast Index values* Read More »

The next 5 days will feature well below-normal temperatures across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US as predicted here by the 12Z GEFS for the 5-day period from today through April 12th. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com A stratospheric warming event that began in late February and continued through March is now doing its magic …

*Monday, April 7th, 2025 – Stratospheric warming event from late February to March is now doing its magic in April…numerous cold air outbreaks and cold weather early season games with low Home Run Forecast Index values* Read More »

The stratospheric temperature pattern as of Thursday, March 20th, featured a relatively “warm” blob of air directly over the North Pole (center) and a weakened and “split” polar vortex (shown in blue). Temperatures at the 10-millibar level over the North Pole are now about 40 degrees warmer than those observed in the surrounding stratospheric polar …

Saturday, March 22nd, 2025 – *A big-league stratospheric warming event assures cold air outbreaks well into April…baseball season gets fully underway on Thursday likely with plenty of cold weather early season games and low “Home Run Forecast Index” values* Read More »

“Stratospheric warming” near the North Pole at mid-month suggests cold air outbreaks can continue in the US well into the early stages of the 2025 baseball season The current stratospheric temperature pattern across the Northern Hemisphere features a rather typical looking (cold) polar vortex centered right near the North Pole with some “stretching” into the …

Friday, March 7th, 2025 – *Stratospheric warming event increases chance for additional cold air outbreaks as 2025 season gets underway…ensures plenty of early season games with low Home Run Forecast Index values* Read More »