Saturday, May 20th – *Early season chill has skewed the HRF Index to the “low” side…signs for a late May/early June nationwide warmup (and Higher HRF Index values)*

The 00Z ensemble run of the Euro features warmer-than-normal temperatures across a large part of the nation in the 5-day period of May 29-June 3.

The 2023 MLB season has just crossed the quarter point and there have been many games played in chilly conditions during the months of April and May. Numerous chilly air masses for this time of year have penetrated in the western and northern US from Canada and this has resulted in the Home Run Forecast Index (HRFI) to be skewed to the “low” side with almost 40% of the games so far featuring an index value of 1, 2 or 3. HRFI values are presented on a scale of 1-10 where “low” numbers are suggestive of unfavorable weather conditions for the baseball to travel.

The 00Z ensemble run of the Euro features near normal to below-normal temperatures across much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation in the current 5-day period. 

It is not just the temperature that plays a role in our calculation of the Home Run Forecast Index as humidity levels are critical as well.  So far this spring season, high humidity conditions have been rather scarce with “hot, humid” type weather virtually non-existent in, for example, the eastern US.  There are some signs, however, for a nationwide warm up late this month/early June to above-normal temperature levels. If this were indeed to take place, the Home Run Forecast Index would quite likely jump to higher amounts. Quite amazingly, less than 3% of the games so far this season have had an average Home Run Forecast Index of either 9 or 10 which represent the most favorable weather conditions for baseballs to travel.

Lets see if Memorial Day weekend is indeed going to mark a transition point for weather conditions across the nation and what impacts this may have on the Home Run Forecast Index, total runs and home runs in big league baseball.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian