Temperatures on Opening Day, Thursday, March 30th will be below-normal in the Northeast US/Mid-Atlantic and California according to the 00Z forecast of the GEM computer forecast model (courtesy Canadian Met Centre).
Overview
Major League Baseball’s Opening Day for all thirty teams is this Thursday, March 30th and it looks like it may be quite chilly in two parts of the nation with below-normal temperatures for several games. One region that is likely to feature colder-than-normal conditions is the Northeast US following the passage of a mid-week cold frontal system and a second region is the western US where it has been quite chilly for weeks compared to normal. In the Northeast US/Mid-Atlantic region, home openers include the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, and the Washington Nationals. California will host three opening games on Thursday in Oakland, Los Angeles and San Diego and temperatures are likely to be below-normal all the way down to the Mexican border. This will be an interesting year for big league baseball as there will be major changes to the game including the restriction of the defensive shift, bigger bases, and – for the first time ever – the usage of a time clock.
The months of March and April have been colder-than-normal during the ten-year period from 2013-2022 from the Northern Plains to the Northeast US.
Details on the weather
Spring is in full force now, but there are residual cold air outbreaks that are still impacting the northern states from the Northern Plains to the Northeast US/Mid-Atlantic. In fact, signs point to additional cold air outbreaks into the first week of April in response to continuing high-latitude blocking in the atmosphere over Canada and Greenland. This kind of upper-air pattern that allows for the transport of colder-than-normal air masses from Canada into much of the northern US has been rather consistent during the past ten years in the months of March and April (see plot).
Home openers in the Northeast US/Mid-Atlantic on Thursday include the Boston Red Sox (vs. Baltimore Orioles), New York Yankees (vs. San Francisco Giants) and Washington Nationals (vs. Atlanta Braves). In Boston, temperatures are likely to hold in the middle 40’s despite sunshine and winds may be quite strong from a northwesterly direction. In New York City, temperatures could top out near 50 degrees despite sunshine which would be about five degrees below normal for the 30th of March. In Washington, D.C., temperatures should peak in the upper 50’s on Thursday afternoon with plenty of sunshine. (The normal high in Boston on March 30th is 50 degrees, 55 degrees in NYC, and 62 degrees in Washington, D.C.).
In the western US, the recent active and colder-than-normal weather pattern of the past several weeks will continue as we close out the month of March. Yet another storm system will push into northern California on Tuesday and then slide down the coast to the Mexican border region by Thursday. As has been the case in recent weeks, this storm system will bring snow to the higher elevation areas such as the Sierra Nevada Mountains of eastern California and rain to low-lying coastal locations.
Home openers in California on Thursday, March 30th include the San Diego Padres (vs. Colorado Rockies), Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Arizona Diamondbacks) and Oakland A’s (vs. Anaheim Angels). In the southern part of the state, there may be some lingering shower activity which could impact the home openers in LA and San Diego. Temperatures are likely to only reach the upper 50’s in southern California on Thursday which is well below the normal high of 71 degrees in LA and 68 degrees in San Diego. Farther to the north, while there should be some sunshine in Oakland, temperatures are also likely to be confined to the upper 50’s for highs which is colder than the normal high there on March 30th of 66 degrees.
Changes for the 2023 baseball season
In terms of the changes for the 2023 baseball season, perhaps the biggest will be the introduction of the pitch timer. The pitcher will have 15 seconds to deliver a pitch with the bases empty and 20 seconds if there are runners on. This change will affect batters as well as they’ll have to be ready in the batter’s box with 8 seconds left on the pitch clock. Pickoffs will be somewhat more limited as well with pitchers restricted to two disengagements (i.e., pickoff attempts or step-offs) per batter.
Another major change will be the restriction of the defensive shift as there will have to be two infielders positioned on either side of 2nd base when the pitch is released. In addition, all four infielders must have both feet within the infield when the pitcher is on the rubber. This change is expected to increase batting averages and perhaps produce less of an emphasis on hitting home runs. Finally, bases will be bigger this year from 15-inch squares to 18-inch and this should aid in player safety and be more favorable runners in that there will be slightly less distance to reach each base.
It’s time to play ball…albeit on the chilly side in some parts of the nation.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian