Monday May 9 – The weather might explain a lot about the lack of offense during the month of April

Much of the northern half of the nation experienced colder-than-normal conditions in the month of April and this included many big league cities from the Mid-Atlantic region to the Midwest to the Pacific Northwest.

It was just recently reported by ESPN.com that the month of April was quite odd for baseball in terms of offense.  Specifically, the month featured an average of just 4 runs per game which was the lowest for any month since 1981.  To make it even more impressive of a feat, this was the fewest runs per game in decades – despite the addition of the DH to the National League as a permanent fixture.  In terms of the long ball, just 36% of the runs in April came via the home run – the lowest total for the month of April since 2015.

Much of the northern half of the nation experienced colder-than-normal conditions in the month of April with the core of the coldest air relative-to-normal centered over the Pacific Northwest. The continental US recorded a temperature anomaly of -0.26 deg C for the month of April according to satellite observations. (Source; baseline period of comparison 1991-2020)

The weather is very likely a big part of the story on the reduced offensive numbers for the month of April.  It is no coincidence that the continental US experienced quite a cool month of April compared-to-normal with a nationwide temperature anomaly reading of -0.26 degrees (C) when compared to the baseline period of 1991-2020.  In fact, numerous big league baseball cities across the northern half of the nation from the Mid-Atlantic to the Midwest to the Pacific Northwest experienced below-normal readings for the first full month of the baseball season. As a result of the widespread cool weather in April, the “Home Run Forecast index” was on the low side for numerous games.  Expect that as the weather warms up across the nation during the next several weeks, so will the offensive output from big league hitters and keep an eye on the “Home Run Forecast index” as it too should be on the rise.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian

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